Never before have so many people across so many countries collaborated on the same project. And now, researchers around the world are sharing their findings in pursuit of a vaccine. Yet globalisation has also furnished us with the information, medicine, technology and multilateral institutions needed to defeat not just viruses, but all other collective threats, too.īecause there is now a global scientific community linked through information and communication technologies, the genome of the novel coronavirus was sequenced and made publicly available by January 12, within two weeks of China’s report of a cluster of cases. To be sure, international air travel did spread the coronavirus around the world much faster than older travel methods would have. The second myth is that COVID-19 has discredited globalisation. Worse, COVID-19 is probably just a dress rehearsal for the disasters that await us as a result of climate change, especially after we pass the warming threshold of 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels, starting in the early 2030s. The sheer depth of the current crisis is the product of our collective failure to think in non-linear terms or to heed scientists’ clear warnings. In fact, public-health advocates like Bill Gates and epidemiologists such as Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota have been sounding the alarm for years about the systemic risks posed by coronaviruses and influenza, as have leading intelligence agencies.
The first is that COVID-19 qualifies as an unexpected “black swan” event for which no one could have prepared. Moreover, to pave the way for renewed international cooperation, three myths need to be debunked. With the United States and China at each other’s throats, global leadership will have to emerge from somewhere other than Washington, DC, or Beijing. But that crucial component remains absent. Looking ahead, the most important factor that will shape how this crisis evolves is collective leadership. In the space of just weeks, the COVID-19 pandemic has shut down one-third of the global economy and triggered the largest economic shock since the Great Depression. The worst pandemic since the 1918-20 influenza outbreak is rapidly morphing into a systemic crisis of globalization, potentially setting the stage for the most dangerous geopolitical confrontation since the end of the Cold War. But the description could just as well apply to the summer of 2020. The year is 1914, when Europe spent its summer mobilizing for war. A combination of mistrust, misperception, and fear dissolves the bonds that sustain modern civilisation. PARIS – A sudden shock upends routine decision-making and forces leaders to take urgent action.
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